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There is plenty of high-profile football to be played out in the Premier League on Boxing Day, but Watford and Norwich fly the flag for the Sky Bet Championship. It promises to be a Christmas cracker.
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Football betting tips: Watford v Norwich
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparenttipping record
Watford v Norwich
- 19:45 GMT kick-off on Sky Sports Main Event
- Match odds: Home 8/5 Draw 11/5 Away 7/4
Xisco Munoz takes charge of Watford for the first time having become their fifth permanent head coach in just 16 months, and while usually there would be clichés written about “new manager bounce”, does that even apply to a club that chops and changes as much as Watford?
Vladimir Ivic was sacked after a 2-0 defeat at Huddersfield, a harsh reaction to a game that played out very differently to how the scoreline suggests.
An error from Ben Foster, compounded by an own goal from Etienne Capoue, capped off a dismal day for the Hornets. But even after going two goals down, they missed chance after chance to get back into the game - James Garner and Andre Gray the chief culprits.
Perhaps they would have converted at least one of those opportunities had Troy Deeney been on the pitch, but with Ivic gone, he could well return.
Munoz has reportedly been brought in for his “attacking philosophy”, which is interesting given, for all that Watford have managed just 23 goals in their 20 matches so far, they have been pretty adept at creating chances, particularly at home.
In fact, the Hornets have fashioned more opportunities on their own patch than anyone else in the Sky Bet Championship this season, generating 1.76xGF (Expected Goals For) per game. And if you don’t go in for xG, then they are also the second-highest scorers at home, with only Bournemouth boasting a better return.
No team have gained more points from home fixtures either, and with their defensive stability a key element to the way they play, it is likely that Norwich will find this a frustrating match from an attacking point of view.
The Canaries are guaranteed to lead the pack heading into 2021, they're currently five points clear, so this is potentially a bigger game for Watford than it is for Daniel Farke’s men.
Undoubtedly Norwich will be desperate to win, but this really could be a season-defining moment for Munoz and his team – win and the title challenge is still on, lose and the season rapidly becomes a scrap for the play-offs.
Norwich currently look the best team in the division, top of the table, creating plenty of chances, and arriving on the back of a five-match winning streak. It would be easy to throw them into an acca based on this, but they do have vulnerabilities, particularly at the back, and there could be value in opposing them here.
Norwich are an excellent attacking team, and that has been a huge part of their success this season. But their defensive process is that of a mid-table side, allowing 1.23xGA per game – only the 14th-best record in the division. That number increases when on the road as well, with Farke’s men allowing chances equating to 1.37xGA away from home.
Given all this then, it seems odds that Watford are as big as 17/10 to come away with all three points.
That looks a big price, and if you dig through the previous betting trends surrounding Watford and Norwich, the numbers back that up. Watford’s average price at home this season has been a shade above evens, while Norwich’s average away price has been around the 6/4 mark.
Now, this is obviously not an efficient way to price up a football match, but it does provide an interesting insight into the betting trends of both teams.
There should be a bigger disparity in the prices between these two, with Watford deserving to be a fair bit shorter than they are, and for this reason we are happy to side with the Hornets to claim the spoils on Boxing Day.
Score prediction: Watford 2-1 Norwich (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Best bet:Watford to win at 17/10
Opta facts
- Despite having the edge over Norwich in their last four league games (W3 L1 – all in the Premier League), Watford have suffered three defeats in the last five against them outside of the top-flight (W1 D1).
- Watford completed the Premier League double over Norwich last season, and have also won their last two league games at Vicarage Road against the Canaries.
- Watford’s only Boxing Day victory in their last six such outings came at home to Leicester in 2017 (D3 L2).
- Norwich have only won four of their last 17 away Boxing Day matches, losing the other 13. Indeed, their only clean sheet in this run came in 2017 in a 2-0 win at Birmingham.
- Emiliano Buendía has been directly involved in nine goals in his last nine league matches for Norwich (5 goals, 4 assists), creating more chances than any other player in the Championship in 2020/21 (51).
Odds correct at 1200 GMT (22/12/20)
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We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
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There’s a six-pointer at the top of the Sky Bet Championship on Friday night as leaders Norwich visit third-placed Swansea. Michael Beardmore has a preview and best bets.
Football betting tips: Sky Bet Championship
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparenttipping record
Swansea v Norwich
- 20:15 GMT Friday kick-off on Sky Sports Football
- Match odds: Home 2/1 Draw 11/5 Away 7/5
A trio of teams at the top of the Championship have already amassed 50 points this season in what could turn into a three-horse race for automatic promotion – and two of them meet on Friday night.
Swansea and Norwich are no strangers to Premier League football and both are looking decently set for a return to the top flight although Brentford – sandwiched in between – will have a say on that.
Sky Bet Football Fixtures
The encounter at the Liberty Stadium is an intriguing one, not least because the bookmakers have leaders Norwich as slightly stronger favourites than I expected – I thought they’d have this 50/50.
The Canaries are, admittedly, top of the table with a strong away record this season but have been held to goalless draws by out-of-form Middlesbrough and mid-table Millwall over the past week.
That hardly bodes well for a trip to the meanest back-line in the division, Swansea’s dogged defence having conceded just 15 goals in 26 games this campaign, keeping a whopping 14 clean sheets.
This seems a very similar scenario to last Friday’s televised game where we profited on backing Reading to beat Bournemouth and make a mockery of the pre-match odds.
Swansea are slightly shorter than the Royals were – 2/1, compared to 5/2 – but we can boost that to 11/4 if we back the hosts to win in a game featuring under 3.5 goals.
I really can’t see this being a goalfest – both sides will be aware of the importance of the game and they boast two of the three best defences in the Championship.
It will be a cagey affair but while Norwich have won just three of their past seven in the league, the Swans have won five and drawn two to go unbeaten during that spell.
Another concern I have over Norwich is their away performances against the division’s better sides – they’ve lost at Bournemouth and Watford, and needed a late equaliser to pinch a point at Brentford.
Sky Bet Football Betting
Without playmaker Emi Buendia, serving the second of a two-game suspension after being sent off in the second half at Boro, the service to striker Teemu Pukki suffers and I see Swansea edging this.
It’s worth a small play on a 2-0 Swansea win at a frankly ridiculous 16/1 with Sporting Index and VBet – nine of their 16 victories in all competitions this season have come by that score and it’s no fluke.
They’re a team that can score early and soak up pressure, happy to concede possession, to frustrate teams while maintaining a constant threat on the counter. I can see Norwich falling into that trap.
Talking of silly prices, Unibet offer 6/1 on loan midfielder Conor Hourihane finding the net at any time – that’s huge on a man with an eye for goal who has struck in both games since arriving from Aston Villa.
The Irishman is a top-end Championship player and while his goal against Brentford was fortunate – a free-kick out wide missing everyone to float in, his first-time finish at Rotherham was utter class.
He’s a threat from set-pieces and open play – you can get 16/1 on him opening the scoring with bet365 which you can take to each way terms but I like the 6/1 any time to keep us interested.
Score prediction: Swansea 2-0 Norwich (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Swansea v Norwich best bets
- 1pt Swansea to win and under 3.5 goals at 11/4 (Sky Bet)
- 1pt Conor Hourihane to score anytime at 6/1 (Unibet)
- 0.5pt Swansea to win 2-0 at 16/1 (Sporting Index/VBet)
Odds correct at 2130 GMT (03/02/21)
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We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.